Thinkcorps

Ran across this list of predictions today at the blog of Barry Parr (ex-CNET, IDC).

I like the prognostications for increased pressure on CMS companies (how they ever got away with selling a product that wouldn’t work until you paid their consultants to put it together, i will never know), email marketing failing in the face of spam filters (this is a definite), free WIFI (definite also, once merchants do the math). Now, onto the three most interesting, imo:

Computer companies will fail in the consumer electronics market, because they don’t have any understanding of what consumers want, have been turned into followers by Wintel market dynamics , and don’t have the right distribution channels. Apple is the only company that could do it, but loss of focus, low margins and short product lifecycles may make it unattractive even to them.

This is probably mostly true, but there’s a flip-side as well – consumer electronics companies don’t currently understand the digital space—whether we’re talking product design, architecture, functionality, product development cycles, software, or user interface. CE is making strides in this area, for sure, but they are lagging behind. In order for them to really succeed, they need to abandon their old ways in every product category and rebuild with focuses on software and networking—areas that make products easy to customize and improve. Open standards would help this immeassurably, but I’m not holding my breath—the licensing fees generated by the CD have made Sony and Philips quite rich—no one’s going to give that potential revenue up for next-generation blue laser DVDs.

The biggest hurdle IMO? Networking CE is going to be a huge challenge. Consumers are not ready to be their own CTOs, so devices need to be able to connect themselves to a home network intelligently. But beyond that, pressure from entertainment companies to restrict the functionality of these devices could cripple their ability to freely network with all connected devices, creating consumer confusion and frustration.

Where’s the silver lining? Gotta be CE’s adoption of Linux. The great side benefit of having all your devices run Linux is that they should all be that much easier to hack/customize to your liking, with the help of the millions-strong Linux community.

There’s going to be a huge struggle in the coming years as the entertainment industry tries to lock down the entire digital sphere through DRM and hardware controls. The truth however is that the battle is already over—one bad apple spoils the bunch—in this case, any hardware/software device attached to the home network that hasn’t been 100% locked down compromises the security of any device attached to that network.

So, how many PCs with Internet access are out there anyway? ;)

Broadband access providers will begin to exercise their muscle by metering bandwidth and by imposing more limits on what protocols their customers can use, what information they have access to, and what information they can publish on the net.

I’ll concede there’s talk of this, but I have to believe that we’ve just dealt with the same situation with WIFI hotspots. There’s not much difference, except that there’s simply more unused broadband bandwidth to play with. As far as limits go, I can certainly see providers provisioning bandwidth for new services they can charge for, such as VOIP. However, the more providers keep the flow flowing, the better off they’ll be, and the more money they will make, i think.

More online content will go behind subscription barriers. However, this will be the beginning of a death spiral for those sites. Eventually (after their current management is fired), they will be reborn as stripped-down, highly-automated free sites.

Online content sites are seriously up the creek—and have been since they first started. The idea that you should give away on one hand what you’re charging for on another doesn’t make any sense. It’s led to an erosion of consumer loyalty and increased confusion. My advice: decide what business you’re in, focus on that, and move the Web site budget under the aegis of the marketing dept. At least then, you’ve instituted some controls.